| Title |
Development of Performance Degradation Model for Levee Structures Based on Survival Analysis |
| Authors |
김서영(Kim, Seoyoung) ; 신주영(Shin, Ju-Young) ; 권지혜(Kwon, Jihye) ; 최소영(Choi, Soyoung) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2026.46.5.0407 |
| Keywords |
제방; 생존분석; Kaplan-Meier; Weibull 분포; 기후변화 Levee; Survival analysis; Kaplan-Meier; Weibull distribution; Climate change |
| Abstract |
Recent climate change has increased the frequency and risk of flooding, further emphasizing the importance of maintaining aging river infrastructure. In Korea, many river facilities were intensively constructed between the 1970s and 1990s, and as their service periods increase, systematic performance management and maintenance strategies are required to ensure public safety and extend facility service life. In this study, survival analysis was applied to historical safety-grade records to examine performance deterioration and the timing of the first occurrence of Grade C for levee facilities in Korea. Facilities that did not reach Grade C during the observation period were treated as right-censored data to minimize information loss. Kaplan-Meier estimation showed that 10 % of the facilities reached Grade C at 42.0 years. Among 1,499 facilities, only 42 cases (2.8 %) reached Grade C, and therefore the median time to the first Grade-C transition could not be estimated from the observed data. To investigate long-term performance changes, four probability distributions were fitted, and the Weibull distribution was selected as the best-performing model. Under the Weibull model, the times
at which 10 % and 20 % of facilities were expected to reach Grade C were estimated as 46.6 and 74.4 years, respectively, while the median time to the first Grade-C transition was estimated as 150.8 years. However, because the 150.8-year estimate is an extrapolated long-term model result rather than an observed value, it should be interpreted with caution and reassessed when additional long-term inspection data become available. The findings can provide quantitative reference information for determining maintenance timing, prioritizing levee facilities, and allocating limited maintenance budgets more efficiently. |