| Title |
Time Series Analysis of Revenue Fluctuations as a Predictor of Disclaimer of Opinion in Construction Firms |
| Authors |
김병일(Kim, Byungil) ; 정도범(Chung, Do-Bum) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2024.44.6.0855 |
| Keywords |
건설기업; 재무제표; 시계열 분석; 의견거절 Construction firms; Financial statements; Time series analysis; Disclaimer of opinion |
| Abstract |
The financial stability of construction firms constitutes a critical criterion for evaluation by clients and stakeholders. Notably, the issuance of a disclaimer of opinion by auditors can profoundly affect a firm's project sustainability and overall credibility. This study investigates revenue fluctuation patterns preceding the issuance of a disclaimer of opinion to identify early indicators of financial risk in construction firms. A paired sample t-test conducted on seven years of revenue data from 50 construction firms demonstrates a statistically significant decline in revenue during the year immediately preceding the issuance of a disclaimer. Complementary analysis, utilizing five years of data from 83 firms, further reveals a pronounced revenue decline commencing two years prior to the issuance. The findings of this research offer valuable insights for clients and auditors by providing a basis for early detection and assessment of financial risk in construction
firms. They underscore the significance of time-series analysis of revenue trends as an integral component of risk management within the construction industry. Given the strong correlation between revenue declines and adverse audit opinions, the study highlights the potential fo r systematic monitoring of such patterns to enhance project success rates. This research contributes to the literature on financial stability and sustainability evaluation in the construction sector and emphasizes the necessity of vigilant scrutiny of revenue trajectories during the auditing process. Moreover, the findings hold promise for advancing predictive models aimed at improving the accuracy of audit opinion forecasts in subsequent studies. |