| Title |
An Analysis of the Impact of Recent Severe Droughts on Dam Water Supply Adjustment Baseline: A Case Study of Juam Dam |
| Authors |
이강민(Lee, Kangmin) ; 정민규(Jung, Minkyu) ; 이주헌(Lee, Joo-Heon) ; 권현한(Kwon, Hyun-Han) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2024.44.6.0807 |
| Keywords |
가뭄 대응; 용수공급; 기준저수량; 용수공급조정기준 Drought response; Water supply; Standard reservoir levels; Water supply adjustment baselines |
| Abstract |
This study aims to evaluate the impact of recent droughts on the variability of current water supply adjustment baselines for dams in response to frequent droughts due to climate change. Using the PARMA model, inflow variability was analyzed for Juam Dam in the southern region, and the sensitivity of water supply adjustment baselines was assessed depending on the inclusion of major drought events. The results showed that increasing the number of stochastic simulations improved the reliability of the water supply adjustment baselines; specifically, while a 15 % difference in reservoir levels was observed in the 100-year simulation, the difference decreased to within 5 % for simulations of 500 years or more, suggesting the use of at least 500-years simulations. Moreover, comparing scenarios including and excluding the drought years of 2017 and 2022, it was found that incorporating drought years led to an average 20 % increase in the target reservoir levels, indicating difficulties in achieving 95 % water supply reliability under current standards. In consecutive multi-year drought scenarios, the target reservoir level increased by up to 30 %, highlighting the need for further discussions on flood management. Based on these findings, the study proposes revising water supply standards to enhance the reliability of dam operations in response to climate change. Future research should focus on developing more sophisticated water resource management strategies and strengthening the national integrated drought response system. |