Mobile QR Code QR CODE : Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers
Title A Spatial-Temporal Correlation Analysis of Housing Prices in Busan Using SpVAR and GSTAR
Authors 권영우(Kwon, Youngwoo) ; 최열(Choi, Yeol)
Page pp.245-256
ISSN 10156348
Keywords 주택시장; 주택 매매-임대가격; 시공간 분석; 공간적 벡터자기회귀모델; 일반화 시공간자기회귀모델 Housing market; Housing sales-rental price; Sptio-temporal modeling; Spatial vector autoregression model; Generalized space-time autoregressive model
Abstract Since 2020, quantitative easing and easy money policies have been implemented for the purpose of economic stimulus. As a result, real estate prices have skyrocketed. In this study, the relationship between sales and rental prices by housing type during the period of soaring real estate prices in Busan was analyzed spatio-temporally. Based on the actual transaction price data, housing type, transaction type, and monthly data of district units were constructed. Among the spatio-temporal analysis models, the SpVAR, which is used to understand the temporal and spatial effects of variables, and the GSTAR, which is used to understand the effects of each region on those variables, were used. As a result, the sales price of apartment had positive effect on the sale price of apartment, row house, and detached house in the surrounding area, including the target area. On the other hand, it was confirmed that demand was converted to apartment rental due to an increase in apartment sales prices, and the sale price fell again over time. The spatio-temporal spillover effect of apartments was positive, but the positive effect of row house and detached house were concentrated in the original downtown area.