| Title |
Technology Gap Prediction and Technology Catchup Strategy for High-Speed Rail Vehicles |
| Authors |
김형진(Kim, Hyung Jin) ; 김시곤(Kim, Si Gon) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2023.43.1.0131 |
| Keywords |
고속철도차량; 기술격차; Gompertz모형; 기술추격단계 High speed rail; Technology gap; Gomperts model; Technology catchup strategy |
| Abstract |
This study started with questioning the fact that in the assessmentof technology, which has taken place every two years since 2010, thetechnology gap in the most technologically advanced countries was evaluated as 4?5 years in each evaluation. To interrogate thisquestion, regression estimation was performed using the Gompertz model based on time series data for technology level evaluation. As a result, it would take 17 years for high-speed rail vehicle technology to reach the level of 95 % of the country with the highesttechnology, and 72 years to reach the level of 100 %. Recognizing the technology gap is important in establishing a technology catchupstrategy. A collaborative technology catchup strategy is the best strategy for moving to an original technology development stage whilecompeting with large global leaders without much domestic market demand. This can occur regardless of where Korea is located in thetechnology catchup stage. |