| Title |
Impact of Natural Hazards on Neighborhood Type Changes in Metropolitan Cities |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2025.45.5.0589 |
| Keywords |
자연재해;근린 변화;대도시;로지스틱 회귀분석;집계구 Natural hazards;Neighborhood change;Metropolitan city;Logistic Regression analysis;Census output area |
| Abstract |
This study analyzed the impact of natural hazards damage on neighborhood type changes in seven metropolitan cities (Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, and Ulsan) excluding Sejong. Neighborhood changes from 2010 to 2023 were tracked using logistic regression analysis as an analysis unit for the census output area. First, three neighborhood types(Struggling, New·High, and Old·Single) were derived through k-means cluster analysis, and the change in neighborhood types between 2010 and 2023 was
calculated. As a result of logistic regression analysis, the likelihood of neighborhood change decreased by 18.0 % as the average annual
damage from natural disasters increased. The possibility of neighborhood changes affected by natural disasters differed according to
city and neighborhood type. As the damage increased, the likelihood of change in Struggling and High·New type decreased by 8.5 %,
while the likelihood of change in Old·Single type decreased by 35.9 %, further intensifying the vulnerability of neighborhoods due to
natural hazards. Neighborhood changes were promoted in Daegu due to increased damage, but changes were relatively suppressed in
Incheon and Ulsan. Natural hazards also affected neighborhood change characteristics, and increased damage reduced the likelihood
of neighborhood improvement and decline by 17.6 % and 13.2 %, respectively. These results empirically demonstrated that natural
hazards can reduce the likelihood of neighborhood change in large cities overall and weaken resilience by suppressing the likelihood
of change, especially in vulnerable neighborhood types and neighborhoods in certain cities. It also raises the need to establish disaster
response and regeneration strategies suitable for neighborhood type and regional characteristics. |