| Title |
Prediction of Life Expectancy of Asphalt Road Pavement by Region |
| Authors |
송현엽(Song, Hyun Yeop) ; 최승현(Choi, Seung Hyun) ; 한대석(Han, Dae Seok) ; 도명식(Do, Myung Sik) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2021.41.4.0417 |
| Keywords |
베이지안 마르코프 혼합 해저드 모델; 도로포장; 기대수명; 환경변수 Bayesian Markov Mixture Hazard model; Road pavements; Life expectancy; Environmental variable |
| Abstract |
Since future maintenance cost estimation of infrastructure involves uncertainty, it is important to make use of a failure prediction model. However, it is difficult for local governments to develop accurate failure prediction models applicable to infrastructure due to a lack of budget and expertise. Therefore, this study estimated the life expectancy of asphalt road pavement of national highways using the Bayesian Markov Mixture Hazard model. In addition, in order to accurately estimate life expectancy, environmental variables such as traffic volume, ESAL (Equivalent Single Axle Loads), SNP (Structural Number of Pavement), meteorological conditions, and de-icing material usage were applied to retain reliability of the estimation results.
As a result, life expectancy was estimated from at least 13.09 to 19.61 years by region. By using this approach, it is expected that it will be possible to estimate future maintenance cost considering local failure characteristics. |