| Title |
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Gyeongan-cheon Watershed Using Multiple GCMs |
| Authors |
김철겸(Kim, Chul-Gyum) ; 조재필(Cho, Jaepil) ; 김현준(Kim, Hyeonjun) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2020.40.1.0119 |
| Keywords |
한강유역;경안천;기후변화;다중 GCM Han river;Gyeongan-cheon;Climate change;Multiple GCMs;SWAT |
| Abstract |
This study analyzed the effects of future climate change on water resources in the Gyeongan-cheon watershed of the Han River. Considering the uncertainties of GCM climate data, future data using 16 GCMs and SQM downscaling method are used. And SWAT model was applied to simulate the hydrological changes from the past to the future. The maximum to minimum difference according to GCM for the future period (2010-2099) was about 1,500 mm of annual precipitation, 150 mm of evapotranspiration, 1,380 mm of runoff, and the deviation from the mean was -40 % to +60 % of precipitation, ±15 % of evapotranspiration, -60 % to +90 % of runoff, which means that the variability is very high according to GCM. The impacts of climate change over the three future periods showed that precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff were expected to increase gradually toward the far future (2070-2099), and would be relatively larger under the RCP 8.5 scenario. On a monthly basis, it was analyzed that precipitation and runoff increased in July to September, while the evapotranspiration decreased in July and August, and increased in September and October. The results of this study are expected to be helpful in understanding the future climate impacts of various GCM data and the uncertainties associated with GCMs. |