| Title |
Study of Stochastic Techniques for Runoff Forecasting Accuracy in Gongju basin |
| Keywords |
ESP;Runoff forecast;ARMA;Time-series analysis;유출예측;시계열분석 |
| Abstract |
When execute runoff forecasting, can not remove perfectly uncertainty of forecasting results. But, reduce uncertainty by various techniques analysis. This study applied various forecasting techniques for runoff prediction"s accuracy elevation in Gongju basin. statics techniques is ESP, Period Average & Moving average, Exponential Smoothing, Winters, Auto regressive moving average process. Authoritativeness estimation with results of runoff forecasting by each techniques used MAE (Mean Absolute Error), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), RRMSE (Relative Root Mean Squared Error), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), TIC (Theil Inequality Coefficient). Result that use MAE, RMSE, RRMSE, MAPE, TIC and confirm improvement effect of runoff forecasting, ESP techniques than the others displayed the best result. |