| Title |
Analysis of Revenue Time-Series Patterns by Audit Opinion Type in Construction Firms: Focusing on Differential Precursors between Qualified Opinion and Disclaimer of Opinion |
| Authors |
김병일(Kim, Byungil) ; 정도범(Chung, Do-Bum) ; 백승원(Baek, Seungwon) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2026.46.5.0471 |
| Keywords |
건설기업; 재무건전성; 감사의견; 의견거절; 한정의견; 시계열 분석 Construction firms; Financial stability; Audit opinion; Disclaimer of opinion; Qualified opinion; Time series analysis |
| Abstract |
This study analyzes revenue growth patterns before the issuance of modified audit opinions in Korean construction firms and examines differences between firms receiving disclaimers of opinion and those receiving qualified opinions. Financial statement data were collected from 398 construction firm cases whose audit opinions changed from unmodified opinions to either disclaimers of opinion or qualified opinions between 2009 and 2024. Year-over-year revenue growth rates over the five years preceding the opinion year were compared across groups using t-tests and panel regression tests accounting for firm-level clustering, and excess growth rates relative to same-year unmodified-opinion group means were examined to account for year-specific market conditions. The results show that firms receiving disclaimers of opinion exhibited a boom-and-bust pattern, in which revenue increased sharply three to four years before the audit opinion year and then declined steeply as the opinion year approached. In contrast, firms receiving qualified opinions showed lower revenue volatility and tended to maintain or recover a certain level of revenue immediately before the opinion year. Firms with lower interest coverage ratios displayed more pronounced early revenue increases and subsequent declines. The boom-and-bust pattern of disclaimer firms was statistically significant: their revenue growth significantly exceeded same-year unmodified-opinion means three to four years before the opinion year and fell significantly below them immediately before it, whereas qualified-opinion firms did not differ significantly from unmodified-opinion firms in any period. These findings suggest that abnormal revenue fluctuations in construction firms can serve as early warning information for identifying the severity of financial distress. |