| Title |
Utilizing SMILE Climate Simulations to Project Disaster Occurrence Characteristics in East Asia: A Focus on Heatwaves |
| Authors |
황석환(Hwang, Seokhwan);마정혁(Ma, Jeonghyeok);강나래(Kang, Narae);윤정수(Yoon, Jungsoo);나우영(Na, Wooyoung) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2025.45.6.0699 |
| Keywords |
폭염; 기후변화; SMILE; 공간적 불균질성; 극동아시아 Heatwave; Climate change; Single model initial-condition large ensemble; Spatial heterogeneity; Far East Asia |
| Abstract |
With the ongoing rise in global mean temperature, the intensity and frequency of heatwave events have been intensifying, a trend projected to accelerate further in the coming decades. This study proposes a framework for projecting future heatwave characteristics using a single-model, multi-member ensemble approach. Specifically, the Data for Policy Decision Making for Future Change(d4PDF) dataset?one of the Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs)?was utilized. Unlike conventional multi-model ensembles, d4PDF incorporates internal climate variability and provides high-resolution temperature projections across
East Asia. The results indicate a consistent increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves across the region under scenarios of +2 K and +4 K global warming relative to the pre-industrial period. The magnitude of change in heatwave frequency and duration exhibited spatial heterogeneity, with interregional disparities projected to widen under higher warming scenarios. Notably, among the four East Asian countries analyzed, South Korea is expected to experience more frequent and prolonged heatwaves than neighboring countries, with occurrences projected to increase by approximately 2.5 to 4.5 times under the +4 K scenario. Overall, this study highlights the escalating heatwave risk over East Asia under combined influences of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability, underscoring the urgent need for adaptive strategies in the region. |