Mobile QR Code QR CODE : Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers
Title Trend Analyses of Monthly Precipitation in Jeolla According to Climate Change Scenarios Using an Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis
Authors 홍다희(Hong, Dahee) ; 김석우(Kim, Soukwoo) ; 조현선(Cho, Hyeonseon) ; 유지영(Yoo, Jiyoung) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong)
Page pp.315-328
ISSN 10156348
Keywords 다각 경향성 분석;월강우량;기후변화 시나리오;전라도 Polygon trend analysis;Monthly rainfall;Climate change scenarios;Jeolla
Abstract Precipitation is a crucial meteorological variable widely used as essential input data in most hydrological models. However, due to climate
change, there is an escalating precipitation variability. Trend analysis plays an important role in planning and operating water resources
systems. As recently developed, Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) is useful in identifying and and analyzing the trends of
hydrologic variables. In this study, the IPTA was applied to monthly precipitation data obtained from 13 meteorological observatories
in Jeolla province, along with synthesized precipitation data according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The trend
results were compared those obtained from the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimation which are generally used in practice.
The results revealed monthly precipitations from February to July and November had increasing trends, and monthly precipitation in
October had a decreasing trend. IPTA, Mann-Kendall test, and Sen’s slope estimation detected trends in 75.00 %, 5.13 %, and 5.13 % of
156(13 stations × 12 months) time series of monthly precipitation, respectively, which indicates that the IPTA is more sensitive in trend
detection compared to the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimation.