| Title |
Estimation of Flood Quantile in Ungauged Watersheds for Flood Damage Analysis Based on Flood Index of Natural Flow |
| Authors |
채병석(Chae, Byung Seok) ; 최시중(Choi, Si Jung) ; 안재현(Ahn, Jae Hyun) ; 김태웅(Kim, Tae-Woong) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2018.38.1.0175 |
| Keywords |
설계 강우-유출 관계 분석법;홍수빈도해석법;지역빈도해석법;자연유량 Design rainfall-runoff analysis;Flood frequency analysis;Regional frequency analysis;Natural flow |
| Abstract |
In this study, flood quantiles were estimated at ungauged watersheds by adjusting the flood quantiles from the design rainfall - runoff analysis (DRRA) method based on regional frequency analysis. Comparing the flood frequency analysis (FFA) and DRRA, it was found that the flood quantiles estimated by the DRRA method were overestimated by 52%. In addition, a practical method was suggested to make an flood index using natural flows to apply the regional frequency analysis (RFA) to ungauged watersheds. Considering the relationships among DRRA, FFA, and RFA, we derived an adjusting formula that can be applied to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged watersheds. We also employed Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation scheme and skill score to verify the method proposed in this study. As a result, the proposed model increased the accuracy by 23.2% compared to the existing DRRA method. |