Extreme rainfall events caused severe damage to human life and property due to the inundation in major urban areas. In particular, the increase in the intensity of rainfall due to climate change causes changes in the design flood discharge. As a result, it causes uncertainty in the design criteria of hydraulic structures. However, quantitative analysis results have not been provided due to the limitations of climate scenarios and the uncertainty in climate changes. Therefore, this research chose Bulgwangcheon basin as the target basin to analysis the discharge considering climate change. As the result, it is necessary to strengthen design standards since the amount of discharge increased by 14.2% even in the near future.
기후변화에 따른 극치강우사상은 과거와는 다른 양상의 강우사상으로 도심지역에 내수침수로 인한 막대한 인명 및 재산 피해를 발생시켰다. 특히 기후변화로 인한 강우강도의 증가는 설계홍수량의 변화를 초래하여 이로 인한 홍수 위험도 증가와 치수안전도 감소 등 수공구조물 설계기준에 불확실성을 증가시키는 원인이 되고 있다. 하지만 기후변화의 불확실성 및 기후시나리오의 한계로 인해 정량적 분석결과가 제시되지 못하는 상황이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 불광천유역을 대상유역으로 선정하여 기후변화를 고려한 유출량 분석을 수행하였다. 그 결과 가까운 미래인 S1기간에서도 14.2%의 유출량이 증가하여 하수도설계 기준 강화가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.
- Ahn, J. H., Yoo, C. S. and Yoon, Y. N. (2001). “An analysis of hydrologic changes in daechung dam basin using GCM simulation results due to global warming.” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 335-345 (in Korean).
- Cameron, D. (2006). “An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK (with uncertainty).” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 328, pp. 212-226.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.12.024
- Ekstrӧm, M., Fowler, H. J., Kilsby, C. G. and Jones, P. D. (2005). “New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integration. 2. Future estimates and use in impact studies.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 300, pp. 234-251.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.019
- Frei, C., Schöll, R., Fukutome, S., Schmidli, J. and Vidale, P. L. (2006). “Future change of precipitation extreme in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models.” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, D06105.10.1029/2005JD005965
- Gupta, V. K. and Waymire, E. (1990). “Multiscaling properties of spatial rainfall and river flow distributions.” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95(D3), pp. 1999-2009.10.1029/JD095iD03p01999
- Hsu, M. H., Chen, S. H. and Chang, T. J. (2000). “Inundation simulation for urban drainage basin with storm sewer system.” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 234, pp. 21-37.10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00237-7
- IPCC (2007). “Climate change 2007, the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change.
- IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change.
- Kim, B. S., Kim, B. K., Kyung, M. S. and Kim, H. S. (2008). “Impact assessment of climate change on extreme rainfall and I-D-F analysis.” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 379-394 (in Korean).10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.4.379
- Kim, S. G. (2014). A study on the extraction method of rainfall event for estimating annual maximum peak discharge. Master’s Thesis, Yonsei University.
- Ministry of Environment (2017). “Design standards of drainage system.” (in Korean).
- Nam, W. S., Ahn, H. J., Kim, S. H. and Heo, J. H. (2015). “The impact of climate change on sub-daily extreme rainfall of han river basin.” Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 21-17 (in Korean).
- Phillips, B. C., Yu, S., Thompson, G. R. and Silva, N. de. (2005). “1D and 2D modelling of urban drainage systems using XPSWMM and TUFLOW.” 10th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Copenhagen, Denmark, August 2005, pp. 21-26.
- Seoul Metropolitan city (2012). “Research on river management with university.”
- Shin, H. J., Kang, S. M., Kwon, H. J. and Kim, S. J. (2005). “Snowmelt impact on watershed hydrology using climate change scenarios - Chungju-dam watersheds -.” Proc. of the 2005 KSCE Conf, pp. 221-224.
- Smith, J., Phillips, B. C. and Yu, S. (2006). “Modelling overland flows and drainage augmentations in dubbo.” 46th Floodplain Management Authorities Conference, March 2006.
- Yoon, Y. N., Yoo, C. S., Lee, J. S. and Ahn, J. H. (1999). “On the change of flood and drought occurrence frequency due to global warming : 2. estimation of the change in daily rainfall depth distribution due to global warming.” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 32, No. 6, pp. 627-636 (in Korean).