All Issue

2019 Vol.39, Issue 3 Preview Page
Injury Severity Analysis of Truck-involved Crashes on Korean Freeway Systems using an Ordered Probit Model

순서형 프로빗 모형을 적용한 고속도로 화물차 사고 심각도

Chanmo Kang1
Younshik Chung2*
Yoo Jin Chang3
강 찬모1
정 연식2*
장 유진3
1Yeungnam University
2Yeungnam University
3Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
1영남대학교 도시공학과 석사과정
2영남대학교 도시공학과 조교수
3국토교통부 첨단도로안전과 주무관
*Corresponding Author
June 2019. pp. 391-398
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

일반적으로 화물차 사고는 일반 승용차 사고 대비 심각도가 높은 것으로 알려져 있으며, 최근 국내 화물차 사고 발생건수 및 사망률은 지속적으로 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 그러나 국내 화물차 사고 심각도 관련 연구는 매우 제한적으로 수행되었다. 이러한 배경 하에 본 연구는 국내 고속도로에서 과거 6년간 발생한 화물차 사고 심각도를 분석하여 화물차 사고 심각도에 영향을 미치는 인자를 도출하고자 한다. 분석을 위해 순서형 프로빗 모형이 적용되었으며 총 10개의 주요 인자가 도출되었다. 이중 8개 인자(나이가 많을수록, 졸음운전의 경우, 추돌 사고의 경우, 사고 후 전도나 전복이 된 경우, 사고 후 화재가 발생한 경우, 사고에 포함된 차량 수가 많을수록, 충돌 속도가 높을수록, 야간주행(0-6시)에 발생한 사고의 경우)는 사고 심각도가 높아지는 것으로, 2개 인자(눈이 오는 경우, 단독차량사고의 경우)는 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구 결과는 국내 고속도로 화물차 사고 심각도를 낮추기 위한 정책 수립 시 기반 자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드
고속도로
교통사고
화물차
사고 심각도
순서형 프로빗 모형

In general, truck-involved crashes increase severity in terms of both injury level and crash impact level. Recently, although the frequency and fatality of truck-involved crashes in Korea are rising, their associative studies are very limited. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify critical factors influencing on injury severity of truck-involved crashes on Korean freeway system. To carry out this objective, this study uses an ordered probit model (OPM) based on a 6-year crash dataset from 2012 to 2017. From the analysis, eight variables were found to have a great effect on injury severity: older driver, crash speed, rear-end collision, number of vehicles involved, drowsy driving, nighttime (0:00 to 6:00) driving, overturn or rollover, and vehicle’s fire after crash. However, injury severity was less severe in crashes under snowy condition and crashes to traffic facilities (i.e., crash alone).

Keywords
Freeway
Crash
Truck
Injury severity
Ordered probit model
References
1 

Aarts, L. and Van Schagen, I. (2006). "Driving speed and the risk of road crashes: A review." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 215-224.

10.1016/j.aap.2005.07.00416256932
2 

Cameron, A. C. and Trivedi, P. K. (2010). Microeconometrics using stata. Stata press College Station, TX.

3 

Chang, L. Y. and Chien, J. T. (2013). "Analysis of driver injury severity in truck-involved accidents using a non-parametric classification tree model." Safety Science, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 17-22.

10.1016/j.ssci.2012.06.017
4 

Chang, L. Y. and Mannering, F. (1999). "Analysis of injury severity and vehicle occupancy in truck-and non-truck-involved accidents." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 31, No. 5, pp. 579-592.

10.1016/S0001-4575(99)00014-7
5 

Chung, Y. (2018). "Injury severity analysis in taxi-pedestrian crashes: An application of reconstructed crash data using a vehicle black box." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 111, pp. 345-353.

10.1016/j.aap.2017.10.01629274955
6 

Chung, Y., Song, T. J. and Yoon, B. J. (2014). "Injury severity in delivery-motorcycle to vehicle crashes in the seoul metropolitan area." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 62, pp. 79-86.

10.1016/j.aap.2013.08.02424161584
7 

Duncan, C., Khattak, A. and Council, F. (1998). "Applying the ordered probit model to injury severity in truck-passenger car rear-end collisions." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1635, pp. 63-71.

10.3141/1635-09
8 

Islam, M. and Hernandez, S. (2013). "Large truck-involved crashes: Exploratory injury severity analysis." Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 139, No. 6, pp. 596-604.

10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000539
9 

Khattak, A. and Targa, F. (2004). "Injury severity and total harm in truck-involved work zone crashes." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1877, pp. 106-116.

10.3141/1877-12
10 

Khattak, A. J., Schneider, R. J. and Targa, F. (2003). "Risk factors in large truck rollovers and injury severity: Analysis of single- vehicle collisions." Transportation Research Record, p. 40.

11 

Kim, S. and Chung, Y. (2018). "Injury severity analysis of cyclists in two wheeler to taxi crashes: An application of vehicle black box data in Incheon, Korea." J. Korean Soc. Civ. Eng., KSCE,Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 917-923 (in Korean).

12 

Kockelman, K. M. and Kweon, Y. J. (2002). "Driver injury severity: An application of ordered probit models." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 313-321.

10.1016/S0001-4575(01)00028-8
13 

Korea Road Traffic Authority (KoROAD) (2018). Traffic Accident Analysis System, Available at: https://taas.koroad.or.kr (Accessed: November 8, 2018)

14 

Obeng, K. (2011). "Gender differences in injury severity risks in crashes at signalized intersections." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 1521-1531.

10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.00421545886
15 

O'donnell, C. and Connor, D. (1996). "Predicting the severity of motor vehicle accident injuries using models of ordered multiple choice." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 28, No. 6, pp. 739-753.

10.1016/S0001-4575(96)00050-4
16 

Savolainen, P. and Ghosh, I. (2008). "Examination of factors affecting driver injury severity in michigan's single-vehicle-deer crashes." Transportation Research Record, Vol. 2078, No. 1, pp. 17-25.

10.3141/2078-03
17 

Savolainen, P. T., Mannering, F. L., Lord, D. and Quddus, M. A. (2011). "The statistical analysis of highway crash-injury severities: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 5, pp. 1666-1676.

10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.02521658493
18 

Xie, Y., Zhang, Y. and Liang, F. (2009). "Crash injury severity analysis using bayesian ordered probit models." Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 135, No. 1, pp. 18-25.

10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2009)135:1(18)
19 

Zhu, X. and Srinivasan, S. (2011a). "A comprehensive analysis of factors influencing the injury severity of large-truck crashes." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 49-57.

10.1016/j.aap.2010.07.00721094296
20 

Zhu, X. and Srinivasan, S. (2011b). "Modeling occupant-level injury severity: An application to large-truck crashes." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 1427-1437.

10.1016/j.aap.2011.02.02121545876
Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Civil Engineers
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한토목학회
  • Journal Title :JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한토목학회 논문집
  • Volume : 39
  • No :3
  • Pages :391-398
  • Received Date :2019. 03. 27
  • Revised Date :2019. 04. 10
  • Accepted Date : 2019. 04. 16
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2019.39.3.0391
Journal Informaiton Agriculture and Life Sciences Research Institute JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS
Online Submission
Archives
: 1981 Vol.1 ~ Current Issue
  • NRF
  • KOFST
  • crosscheck
  • open access
  • orcid
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • KISTI Current Status
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close